Clarity

Where to start.

Depending on which talking head you prefer, the republican control of the legislative, executive and possible the courts will either ruin our great country or propel it into an amazing future.  Just like when the democrats had control, your favorite pundit predicted the death of our great country or the beginning of a new era.

The truth, and clarity, always lies in the middle.

These are trying times for all of us, especially those of us who are not ideological purists.  I personally remain unmoved by the arguments put forth by either side in the current handwringing or jubilant flag waiving of the non-centrist.  But this is a time to take stock and carefully start preparing for things to unravel.

On tax reform.

The real problem is, when the legislative and executive branches change hands, as they inevitably will, do you think that these so-called tax reforms will stand? Will we keep a 20% tax on corporate earnings?  Probably not.  Will we keep the unnecessarily complex “pass-through” tax law?  Probably not. Will individual tax brackets go back to more progressive?  Most likely.

Within 10 years.

When I first started in public accounting a partner took me along to a lunch with a long-time client.  He harvested walnuts.  The most striking thing he said at this lunch was that the crops he is harvesting today comes from trees planted 15 or more years ago.  It takes that long to produce mature enough nuts to take to market.

Consider that.  Someone had to be willing to invest day 1 knowing that there would be no pay back for 15 years.  Believe it or not, that is what strong companies do, they plant, the tend, and then they harvest.  What they need is things to remain somewhat consistent and predictable.  But if tax laws are changing every few years, planning become impossible.  Businesses get whiplash and planning goes out the window.

On our current executive.

He is what we elected.  If you don’t like it, then think about how to address the problem.  But I will be honest, more people voting against him in 2020 in the states of California and New York will not get him voted out of office.  If he really bothers you, then you will need to move you, your family, and the 10,000 close friends you have to the mid-west.  The Elector College matters and yes, sometimes it gives us terrible results, but I think that is why it was put in place.

On jobs and economic growth.

Several years ago I read a paper on the correlation between economic growth and the increase to the labor pool.  Historically, countries tend to grow at the same pace as the participants in the labor force grows, otherwise, countries end up in either inflationary or recessionary cycles.  I believe that our labor force participation rate is growing about 2% a year.  This is the net of new entrants, retirees, immigration and emigration.  Cut immigration and the economy will grow at 1.5%.

This is a huge problem, and not just for meeting the projections in the tax bill.  Japan is a fascinating example of this.

Social security needs a certain minimum number of working adults paying into the system in order for it to receive sufficient funds to pay out claims for retirees.  If I remember my numbers, back in the 1930’s there were 8 working people for every retiree drawing social security.  Today I believe that number is about 3:1.  Again, if the ranks of retirees are growing faster than the ranks of new entrants to the labor market, we have to face the reality that this ratio could drop to 1.5:1.

Oh, and consider that wages are not growing.  That means that social security taxes, which are only on wages, is not growing.

Getting clarity is not hard.  It does, however, require a little effort to look beyond your belief system and ask hard questions.  The most effective answers always lie in the middle.  Let’s see if we can’t start having that conversation there instead of always arguing from the fringes.

Have a great day.

 

On Growth and Taxes

Happy Monday.  From what I see, the tax debate begins in earnest this week, barring someone going horribly off-message.  I give that a 30% chance.

One of the more perplexing points about reducing US Corporate taxes is the belief that lower taxes will lead to job creation.  I am afraid the logic isn’t there.

There are two big pots of money in a corporation – money to run the business and money to return to shareholders.  Money to run the business is before tax, return to shareholders is after tax.  This is generally structured as a dividend.

The logic is, if we reduce the amount of money available after tax, businesses will reinvest.  Or, if we reduce the amount of tax on money returned to shareholders, the business will reinvest.  It is an invalid conclusion.

It is my understanding that corporations are facing another great year of profits.  That means their revenues exceeded costs.  Those costs include labor, or the hiring of workers to produce the goods and services which generate the revenues.

If a corporation already has all the employees it needs and is profitable, how is reducing taxes going to incentivize a corporation to hire more?  The answer is, it won’t.  Companies hire employees to fulfill demand.  Thus, if you want to increase employment, increase demand.  That is a market issue, not a tax issue.  The only employment opportunities coming from this tax bill are for tax lawyers and accountants, for which I am truly thankful.

If more money is returned to me as a shareholder, I MIGHT consider reinvesting.  More likely, I will attempt to diversify my holdings and invest in another opportunity – provided it can generate a reasonable rate of return. But that investment will likely be in the stock market, not in a start-up or small business so new job creation will probably not occur.

The corporate tax system needs to be redesigned, I don’t think anyone with the basic premise.  But the real issue is, do we want to spend $3.0 TRILLION? Once we decide on that, the next issue is how to collect $3.0 TRILLION in taxes without creating whole new cottage industries designed to thwart the collection cycle?

Fundamentally there are two things to consider from my perspective.  Corporations do not pay taxes – consumers pay taxes.  And, redistribution should be between today’s taxpayers, not between generations.  That is, no deficits.

So what to do about this?

First, don’t buy the argument that tax cuts focused on the top 1-5% of income producers will increase jobs.  Demand increases jobs.  Unfortunately, the wealthy can already spend on discretionary items; it is really the middle class and poor echelons that have a desire to spend which actually drives demand.  There is nothing in this tax cut for them.

Second, accept the premise that the corporate tax system needs to be reformed.  It was designed in an age where we were a net producer economy and that is no longer the case.  How we get to true corporate tax reform should probably take a little longer than 3 months though.

Third, question why we have to shift our tax burden to the next two (or more) generations.  Deficit spending is simply asking future generations to pay for our spending habits today.  I personally am not convinced that deficit spending is warranted even in recessions but most economists believe it works so that is probably the only time it may be justified.  I haven’t heard about the US being in a recession at the moment.

Finally, write, call or visit your local congressional delegation.  I know that a lot of these issues are complex and we are only given sound bites to work with, but if it doesn’t feel right, say something.  You don’t need to be a hyper-partisan, you just need an informed opinion.  Remember, this is about our tax structure and how we get where we want to go.  But if you want to spend, be ready to pay the bill.

 

My two cents on taxes

Many of you know I have practiced accounting and taxes for many years, even after taking a break to work with a start-up.  I work mostly with small business owners who have incredibly high hopes and dreams and who have never met an opportunity for zero taxes they haven’t liked.  I am also incredibly honored to be working with Doug McLain on our new start-up C.O.R.E. Services which focuses on condominium and homeowner association audits and reviews.

There are several aspects of the congressional tax debate I am struggling with.  First, does the current approach of taxing income need to be changed?  Second, will rewriting tax law address fundamental issues of fairness, competition and profitability in business?  Third, can reforming how we collect taxes address underlying social issues that will need to be addressed to move this wonderful country into a world where technology, not people, produce goods and services?

I am not an economist or a political type.  I am a practicing accounting and tax theorist.  And I doubt if my missive here will explore all the nuances of the three questions – at least in one post.  But I want to take a stab at it in hopes that my friends and colleagues around the US will weigh in before we take this plunge.

Does the current model of taxing income need to be changed?

I have argued for several years that the model of income taxation is problematic for a net consumption society.  What I mean by this is that the US overall consumes more than it produces domestically.  By taxing production through income taxes, the US continues to exempt internationally produced goods.  Which means that our legislators spend considerable effort trying to find new ways to capture taxes on these non-us produced goods.  It is not successful.

The problem with taxing income is that it relies upon someone defining the term.  Income, profit, is revenues less expenses.  Sounds simple.  But, what is revenue?  What is an expense?  If you think I am being rhetorical, the accounting profession has rewritten the rules of accounting for revenues under ASC 606.  There is no one simple definition of income and when legislators get involved, they try to pick winners and losers to society’s detriment.  Again, look at the current plan of allowing businesses to immediately write-off all business equipment purchased by supercharging section 179.  Small business can already write-off $250,000 of new equipment so who benefits from this?

It is probably time for the US to rethink its approach to the collection of taxes to pay for government spending.  So, reforming the concept of taxes is a good idea and it should address the fundamentals of how to simplify collection and reporting and probably even address what is the most effective way to ensure sufficient tax inflows to cover government’s spending plan.

Will the current attempt at tax reform lead to fairness, competition and profitability in business?

The problems I see in the current approach to tax reform is that there is no attempt at creating a truly level business playing field.  As a case in point, lets look at the claim that creating a new tax system for pass-through entities will enhance fairness, competition and profitability.

First, a basic primer on choosing an entity.  The primary choice for most operating businesses is the corporate structure.  In the US, we have two types of corporations – C corporations and S corporations.  The S Corporation has certain restrictions as to when it can be used and in return offers certain benefits to the owners.  The C corporation has minimal restrictions on its use and has certain costs to its owners.

The C Corporation pays taxes on its profits.  The S Corporation does not and instead passes the taxable profits to its owners who pay the tax as though it was earned by them.   Because the profits are taxed to the C Corporation, if it decides to issue dividends then those dividends are taxed by its owners.  This is the primary dreaded double taxation.  This can, at times, run to a combined tax of over 50%.  Not that any one person sees that though.  The S Corporation, on the other hand, can issue the dividend with no additional tax because the owners already paid tax on the income.  No double taxation.

So, while the two types of businesses operate and issue dividends, the S Corporation is tax advantaged as its earnings are taxed at a maximum 39.6% and C Corporation earnings at about 50%.

Getting to the point.  Today, any business which meets certain basic rules can be an S Corporation.  The current reform effort wants to change that so certain “professionals” such as lawyers, doctors and yes accountants, cannot be.

This is the antithesis of fairness and creating a level competitive playing field.  Again, I work with many small business owners all of whom spend far more hours at their company than I do and whose sole efforts make or break their small business.  How is that widget makers profits any more special than a doctors?

I and other tax professionals have disliked some aspects of the S Corporation tax law forever but this attempt to fix it seems worse than the original problem.  To be a little snarky, I do appreciate the opportunity for continued employment though as small businesses will spend considerable sums of money hiring professionals like me to help them avoid some aspects of any new tax law where certain professions are targeted; likely even more than they pay us now.

Finally, how do we reform tax law so that it puts the US on a path to ensure that our spending priorities are met in the future when production is something that has even less human intervention than it does today?

Obviously, the fly in the wine we should address is the fact that, at the federal level, the US spends $3.0 TRILLION annually and only taxes about $2.0 Trillion.  To be fair to America, tax reform should first address that the spending amounts agreed to by congress should be met with an equal amount of tax inflows.  Yes, I am in favor of some sort of balanced budget requirement – although I think it should be modified so infrastructure spending is not part of a current budget cycle as its benefit spans multiple years and decades.

But the important thing about this is, if legislators want to spend $3.0 TRILLION and we, as the voting public agree, then find a way to bring in tax inflows which equal that amount.  Get rid of the gimmicks and funky multi-year accounting games.

Next, we need to evaluate how wealth is generated in America and it should be taxed to support our social goals.  Sorry, but again the reality of taxing income likely needs to change which leaves us with few options.  The hard truth is, ensuring that lower and middle income citizens have discretionary cash flow benefits the wealthy, not the other way around.  So tax reform should focus less on people earning a wage and receiving wealth transfers and more on those who have the disposable wealth.

The current attempt at tax reform does not really address these issues, sadly.  Yes, tax reform is essential but even more important is eliminating the desire by politicians to spend today and tax tomorrow.  Tax reform must focus on how to ensure that our national goals (spending) are met by appropriate levels of inflows (taxes).  What we are witnessing is simply another way for our legislators to avoid making critical decisions about how to ensure that America is positioned to lead the world for the next 100 years.

Thoughts on change

Happy Friday.

Have you noticed that many people are afraid of change?  That somehow the way it was is good enough and so should be continued into the future unnecessary.  Or worse, because it didn’t work before it can’t work today.   While looking back at history is a decent guide to making a decision, it cannot be the only tool we use when deciding how we should do things today.  Or tomorrow.  Things are changing and small business has to get on top of this or suffer the consequences.

Last night Kubae and I had dinner with Wes and Dianne – good friends for many years.  We got onto the topic of change – technically we were discussing the Brexit and the Trump issue – and the things that both sides had in common.  Dianne pointed out that that the supporters of both movements lived in fear of the change that is happening.  Kubae then pointed out that it isn’t just the change but the pace of change that is possibly a driver.

The pace of change. I think they are onto something.

Look at the last 100 years. in 100 years we have gone from being essentially foot-mobile to autonomous vehicles.  We have gone from handwritten letters to text messages.  We have gone from biplanes to space shuttles. All this in 100 years.

Look at the last 50 years. We have gone from 3 major automobile manufacturers to 15. From leaded gasoline to electric and solar. From princess phones to Bluetooth.  From large global mass manufacturing to 3D printing of single pieces.  Amazing changes in my lifetime.

As an accountant, I am a trained historian.  Historians look at the past and try to make sense of it.  All accounting is really is ensuring that the business history (its transactions) are recorded clearly and concisely for future use.  History is useful but I have found that history alone is insufficient to help chart a course of action.

As a business developer, I am a futurist.  A futurist looks at today and asks how it might look tomorrow.  A futurist needs history to provide a starting point and trends that can help guess what tomorrow will look like.  Guessing about the future is fun, although it is often seen as science fiction or worse a waste of time.

And yet, a futurist is a planner.  Businesses must plan what their future is going to look like and then remain flexible enough to adapt to the unforeseen changes and also record things so that the historical reality can be compared to that future guess.

And this is the rub isn’t it?  I have often joked that I think most small business owners are frustrated accountants. They love the history of their business -how hard they’ve worked, how much money they’ve made.  But when asked what the future holds for their business, the response is typically, “same as last year but add 10%”.  That might have worked in 1960, but I don’t think this is going to hold true in 2020; and that is only 4 years away.

That’s right. four short years.  Are you asking yourself what your business is going to look like with

  • Drones doing delivery
  • cars that drive themselves
  • trucks that drive themselves
  • equipment that warns before it malfuctions
  • a printer that can make parts by adding and not subtracting raw materials
  • energy without being connected to the power grid
  • food grown locally instead of on large farms and trucked
  • and a million other things

This is the easily predicted future because most of this is here now.   What about the things we haven’t even dreamed of yet?  Are you positioning your business to be part of these changes or are you going to defiantly wave your buggy-whip until the end?

Typically, I would sign off by suggesting you have a conversation with your accountant, but not today.  Take someone two generations removed from you out to lunch and ask them these questions.  Find a good science fiction book and read about what their vision of the future looks like.  Let your mind explore the fascinating potential that your business has before it and start thinking about your future. Because it doesn’t have to be about fearing the change – it can be about embracing it.

Have a great weekend.